The Ministry of Agriculture expects about 220,000 tonnes of olives and 30,000 tonnes of oil this season. That is enough to cover local demand, after last season’s output fell by nearly 54% to 16,342 tonnes. Yet when the mills opened on 15 October, extraction rates were low, mostly between 12% and 18% against about 25% last year. ISDI traces this to a late season rather than a weak one: Spring: a long, wet winter and a cool May pushed fruit set into June. Summer: an August heatwave paused oil formation. October: early rain added water to the fruit without adding oil. The article separates two causes of low yields. One is real: green fruit whose oil has not yet formed, whose only time will fix it. The other is only apparent: rainwater that lowers the percentage measured against wet weight. Two international tools tell them apart: measuring oil against dry weight and the Jaén maturity index adopted by the International Olive Council, which puts optimum ripeness at about 3.5 on a scale of 0 to 7. Regional studies on similar varieties support this approach. ISDI accepts that farmers have real reasons to harvest early but warns that early picking means less oil per tin, while waiting too long brings fruit drop, olive fruit fly and lower quality. It recommends: deciding field by field and harvesting in stages with checks every seven to ten days confirming ripeness on a dry-weight basis treating high-phenolic early oil as a deliberate premium product for a limited quantity It also calls on the directorates, NARC and the Syndicate to build a regional ripeness-monitoring system on the model of Andalusia’s RAIF network, building on the existing weekly mill survey. With more than 20 million trees and over US$1.5 billion invested in the sector, olives are central to Jordanian livelihoods and heritage.